With the decision to cancel the remaining 3 months of the Huebner World Tour in the rearview mirror, we turn next to the question of where will we go to ride this thing out.  The obvious big decision is whether to return to the United States or not. 

As of today, March 15, there 170 thousand reported cases worldwide and the United States has only reported 3,600 cases.  However, we know the data is crap.  Kyle and Leanne have heard a lot of stories from their US doctor friends about how there is absolutely no capability to do testing.  People are going to their doctors with 103 degree fevers and hacking up a lung and are being refused a test because they haven’t been out of the country to a designated hot zone. Say What????

From our perspective, the Coronavirus has already come to the US in a big way but is not showing up in the numbers. Articles abound analyzing the US healthcare system’s inability to handle a widespread pandemic.  We are already hearing of Seattle’s strained healthcare with only 769 cases.

Kyle has read that a group of 12 people returned from a trip to Italy to Southern California and that Manhattan Beach now has 5 cases despite the lack of testing.

California Governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency, banned gatherings over 250 people and issued an order to commandeer hotels and medical facilities to treat Coronavirus patients.  Manhattan Beach Unified School District, Los Angeles Unified School District along with a slew of others across the state have ordered schools closed. 

With our house rented out through June, we’d have nowhere to come back to. The kids aren’t in school. No jobs to return to. We have everything we need We realize we are in an enviable position of having the complete flexibility to choose any location in the world to hunker down. 

We’ve now decided we’re not going back to California.  The other considerations are our parent(s) on the East Coast.  Kyle’s mom lives in a gated retirement community in Florida.  When they’ve had past flu outbreaks, they’ve shut down the community not allowing any outside visitors so it’s seems highly likely that they are headed this route with the Coronavirus.

Leanne’s parents in New Jersey is a much harder decision.  Our presence there may be welcomed and helpful on the farm with extra labour we could offer but we also do not want to expose Leanne’s parents, given their age and conditions, to the seven of our germs regularly either. If we have to FaceTime daily to limit their exposure, we will. So it won’t matter if we are 3 miles or 300 miles or 3,000 miles away, will it?   

So decision made, no go on returning to the United States. But where go to?

Kyle is originally thinking Oceania. Raise your hand if you can locate the islands of Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Niue or Nauru on the map?  Yup, us neither.  So Kyle figures there are going to be no tourists there and easy to isolate.  But it seems a little too far away. It would take 45 hours to get from Nauru to New York if we needed to get back for Leanne’s mom.

Under the same logic, we switch to focus on the Caribbean islands.  They have more tourists but are still relatively isolated and dramatically closer to the East Coast where most islands can be reached by a direct flight to the US in under 4 hours.

Ok, making progress. But now which Caribbean island?

We start with eliminating the most dangerous ones.  Jamaica has one of the highest murder rates in the world so that one is out. St. Kitts and Nevis’ capital city Basseterre has the highest murder rate of any capital city in the world so that’s out.  Similarly, Dominican Republic, Barbados and Trinidad & Tobago have very high crime or murder rates and are ruled out.

Next we look at population and population density and although somewhat arbitrary, we draw a cutoff line eliminating populations greater than 100K populations or population densities greater than 200 people per square KM. To put that in context, Manhattan, NY has a population density of 27,346 per square KM. We know that high density areas are the Coronavirus’ best friend.

These filters further axe Aruba, Grenada, Cayman Islands, US Virgin Islands, Curacao, St Vincent & the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Martinique, Bahamas and Guadeloupe.

We are now shaping up a more manageable list Antigua, Bonaire, Dominica, Anguilla, St Bart’s, St Eustatius, Turks & Cacaos and Montserrat.  Next we look at statistics on tourist visits to each island but it supports our previous filters as the list remains unchanged. 

Our first priority is to find someone that minimizes the probability of getting the Coronavirus in the first place and then secondly, that there are medical services in the event we need it.  So we turn to the country’s healthcare ranking. The only ones left on the list than rank in the top 100 countries by healthcare ranking are Antigua and Dominica. 

Next, Kyle turns to the Expat Guide for Antigua and Barbuda. Once a part of the British Empire, the official language is…English! Score. It’s renowned for its education system with literacy rate greater than 90%.  Expats are drawn to Antigua because of its lush natural scenery, stunning beaches and high standard of living.  It is nicknamed “Land of 365 Beaches” because of its numerous beaches surrounded by the Atlantic Ocean or Caribbean Sea. The Mount St. John’s Medical Center is the most modern of all hospitals among the Caribbean islands. The weather is very good with humidity low in comparison to other tropical islands.

Ok, sold! Antigua it is! Was the methodology full proof?  Of course, not but given we only had a couple hours to make the decision and come up with a place, we feel good we made the best decision we could with the information we had.

Next we turn to securing a hunker down location.  Kyle pulls up our trusty Airbnb app and searches on Antigua.  The first one that pops up is jaw droppingly good.  It’s a house with a pool on a cove.  John analyzes the island and informs us that the west coast is where the capital of St. Johns is located as well as the major port where the cruise ships come in.  This house is located on the opposite, east coast.  From everyone John can tell, this is a very remote part of the island.  The pictures on Airbnb seem to confirm this as the cove looks pretty isolated.

“Book it…NOW!” Leanne screeches at Kyle when he shows her the pictures.  Kyle puts in the request to book and we wait with bated breath for the owner to approve the request.  Luckily, it only takes about 30 minutes to get the confirmation. 

The last step is to secure the plane tickets.  We’re not in a great situation with US closing its borders to the Europe in a couple days.  And as you’re probably guessing, there are no direct flights from Cairo to Antigua.  Kyle is furiously searching away looking at every possible route. 

Finally, the best he can come up with is flying Cairo to Istanbul arriving at 2am, staying overnight in the Istanbul airport hotel, flying Istanbul to London Heathrow arriving at 10am, transfer from Heathrow to London Gatwick, fly from Gatwick arriving in Antigua at 4:30pm. 

The catch is that this route requires booking through 3rd party site Kiwi.com. The price tag for the 7 of us is still a hefty $11,000 but going direct would be increase the price to over $20,000.  We have used Kiwi twice and it went smoothly so Kyle press the purchase button.  The mouse wheel spins around for what seems like an eternity and a message pops up saying, “We’re sorry, there was an issue with your payment approval, please call our support number so we can verify your payment.” Damn it!

Of course, when Kyle calls, there is a pre-recorded message saying that due to the Coronavirus, the expected hold time to speak to a representative is like 3 days.  Kyle groans for the umptieth time in the last week.  He moves out to the pool bar area, sets up shop on a restaurant table with a view overlooking the pyramids, orders his first of many beers and settles in for the long haul. 

Kyle loses count of how many beers he’s had and just hopes he doesn’t pass out before the damn agent comes on the phone.  Surely an eternity but at least less than 3 days, an agent finally comes on.  Kyle explains the situation and she takes all his credit card info and says she will try to process it. Another hold your breath moment and the agent comes back on the phone saying it was approved.  Relief floods over Kyle.

“So, these tickets are guaranteed now, correct?” Kyle asks. “Yes,” the agent responds. “I have to book a non-refundable hotel room in Istanbul airport, so you’re absolutely certain the tickets are confirmed and final?” Kyle asks. “Yes,” the agent responds. “So there is no scenario under which we aren’t 100% confirmed booked on these flights?” Kyle presses on. “Sir, I’m absolutely certain!” she responds.  “Ok, I guess it’s time to celebrate then because we’re going to Antigua baby!” Kyle practically screams. “You have fun, sir” the agent deadpans wishing she was the one going to Antigua.